Executive Summary

Russia is ready to begin a full-scale military attack on Ukraine. The escalation taking place on Ukraine’s borders deteriorates the security of Europe as a whole and demonstrates how the threat of military action has become the primary tool in Russia’s foreign policy toolbox. Estonia must prepare for sustained military pressure from Russia.

The situation in Ukraine today shows the how important Ukraine is in Russian foreign policy thinking. Without Ukraine, Russia’s imperial ambitions fall apart. Russia is particularly perturbed by Ukraine’s success in crafting a national identity.

The strategic military exercise Zapad 2021 fits into a pattern whereby the Russian Armed Forces use lessons learned to form new units in the Western strategic direction.

The anti-Western activities of Russian special services demand constant vigilance and attention. Intelligence centres of Russian military intelligence (GRU) conduct human intelligence from the territory of Russia, while their area of responsibility extends to Western Europe. Meanwhile, cyber espionage operations conducted by the Russian special services have proved themselves as a well-established and effective way to supply Russian leadership with information on the West’s intentions.

The hybrid attack orchestrated by Belarus is an attempt by Lukashenka to legitimize himself in the eyes of the West using migrants as a weapon, simultaneously serving Russia’s interests. In Moldova, Russia is working to restore its geopolitical position and pressure the pro-Western government using energy.

Russia exploits climate policy as a “soft” subject to positively engage with the West that is otherwise hostile toward it. The reality betrays clear intent to advance Russia’s interests alone.

Supported by overt and covert influence operations, Russia’s vaccine diplomacy continued in 2021 with some setbacks.

The growth of repressions and outright bans in Russian domestic policy allow for more and more parallels with the Soviet Union. The State Duma elections in September 2021 were extensively manipulated. Sanctions against Russia work within the limitations set when they were imposed. The effect of sanctions is demonstrated by the actions of GAZ Group when under the threat of sanctions.

Like Russia, China also attempted to use its COVID-19 vaccine to further its geopolitical ambitions. To soften its public image, China has reined in its wolf warrior diplomacy. The cooperation between China and Russia is not as close and friendly as the parties would have it seem.

The threat of terrorism in Europe could increase with breeding grounds in Africa and Afghanistan. Radicals already in Europe pose a separate source of danger. Illegal migration from Afghanistan might also increase due to events there, particularly via the Eastern Mediterranean route.