Russia’s biggest lesson in the war in Ukraine in 2023 was force generation. While Russia was able to recruit a large mass of people, it failed to achieve military success due to inadequate training. Russia is likely to persist with its attrition-based warfare against Ukraine in 2024.
The objectives of Russia’s military reform reflect the leadership’s vision of the resources required for the conflict with Ukraine and a confrontation with the West. The Kremlin is probably anticipating a possible conflict with NATO within the next decade. For Estonia, Russia’s military reform entails a significant increase in Russian forces near the Estonian border in the coming years.
The Russian military industry has significantly increased its production in response to the prolonged war against Ukraine and can supply the armed forces with the necessary artillery ammunition and armoured vehicles to continue its aggression. Russia’s advantage over Ukraine in terms of available artillery ammunition will likely continue to grow in 2024 unless Western countries can quickly step up the production and delivery of artillery ammunition to Ukraine.
Lukashenka intervened in Prigozhin’s uprising in the summer of 2023 primarily to stabilise Putin’s regime, which is directly linked to his own hold on power. The deployment of Prigozhin’s most loyal fighters to Belarus allowed Putin to rid himself of a contingent that was disloyal to him, shifting the responsibility for them onto Lukashenka’s shoulders. Wagner’s presence likely does not pose a threat to internal stability in Belarus or to neighbouring countries.
The militarisation of Russian society is ongoing at all levels, and the regime is progressively adopting a totalitarian character. The protracted war of attrition in Ukraine is the key driver of Russia’s internal political dynamics. This conflict, enduring in intensity, increasingly aggravates domestic political and societal strains, adding to the burden on Putin’s regime.
Russia’s economy shows a heavy reliance on “war-dependence”. The economic growth seen in 2023 was largely fuelled by significant state budget allocations to the military industry. The more entrenched the Russian economy becomes in military orders, the more challenging the eventual transition away from it will be.
Putin aims to secure victory in Ukraine to demonstrate geopolitical superiority over the West and reshape the European security landscape. While Putin may believe that time is on his side, counting on Western and Ukrainian fatigue, the West should not overestimate Russia’s strategic planning. As an intermediate goal, Russia would likely prefer to freeze the conflict on its own terms. To achieve this, Russia employs nuclear intimidation and covert communication.
Russia has largely managed to maintain its position in most former Soviet territories outside the European Union despite the ongoing war in Ukraine. Moldova, however, stands out as it continues to pursue a pro-Western course at the national level. Russia is attempting to tilt Moldova back into its orbit by influencing the country’s electoral
process in 2024-2025.
As a result of international isolation and loss of influence in the West, Russia seeks allies in the global South and the Arab world. However, these efforts have not met with the desired level of success due to hesitations on the part of potential partners and diverging interests.
Due to the sanctions on Russian media outlets as the Kremlin’s main levers of influence, Russia desperately seeks ways to continue spreading its narratives in the Western information space. Western journalists have been targeted for press tours to occupied Ukrainian territories to influence their reporting in favour of the Kremlin’s version of the war.
Russian special services closely monitor Western diplomatic personnel in Russia and their contacts with the Russian expert community, aiming to recruit individuals for cooperation. Information about Western diplomatic personnel’s interactions with Russian academics and think tank experts is likely to reach the FSB.
Russia and China both share opposition to the United States and its allies, but unlike Russia, who is preoccupied with its war in Ukraine, China focuses more broadly on realising its global ambitions, seeing and cultivating its partnership with Russia within a larger framework, seeking to establish a global network that operates on China’s terms. Chinese and Russian media and ideological cooperation are likely to align the foreign policies of both countries further.
China’s increasingly ideologised foreign policy may cloud its perception of the global landscape. Over the past year, China has notably escalated its influence activities towards Europe. The Belt and Road Initiative continues to hold a central place in China’s global strategy.
China is building an integrated political and technological ecosystem based on its own standards and an amalgamation of solutions from various Chinese technology companies. The spread of Chinese technology into critical infrastructure poses a threat to Estonia’s security.
The threat of terrorism in Europe remains high in the near future. The Koran-burning demonstrations in Europe in 2023 set the stage for retaliatory attacks.
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