The Kremlin’s pipe dream: a return of the nuclear winter

Russian propagandists are aiming to reignite fears of a “nuclear winter” among Americans in 2025. This effort is based on a scientific concept, widely discussed in the 1980s, which suggested that the use of nuclear weapons would trigger an artificial cooling of Earth’s climate, with a drastic drop in temperatures leading to widespread famine and other catastrophic consequences. While once a popular scientific theory, the nuclear winter hypothesis was later heavily criticised for being based on flawed data, drawing arbitrary conclusions and suffering from ambiguity. It has since been revealed that the debate was sparked by a disinformation campaign orchestrated by the Soviet KGB to deter the US from deploying Pershing II missiles in Europe.

Forty years on, Kremlin propagandists are now seeking to revive the nuclear winter theory. Their overarching goal remains the same: to instil fear in Western, particularly American, public opinion and to discourage the provision of (military) aid to Ukraine. To achieve this, the Kremlin has even mobilised some of its oldest and most familiar figures. For example, one of the leading proponents of this revival is well-known propagandist Vladimir Pozner, who will soon celebrate his 91st birthday. Pozner has expressed his willingness to reintroduce 1980s-style televised dialogues with the US, framing discussions on various issues through the lens of a nuclear winter threat to sway American public opinion.

Ideal strategy would be to recruit influential American science communicators to champion the nuclear winter theory.

The Kremlin plans to launch a broader campaign that combines television with modern methods and platforms, such as YouTube,
podcasts and carefully selected spokespersons with authoritative and “palatable” viewpoints. Their ideal strategy would be to recruit
influential American science communicators to champion the nuclear winter theory. Similarly, in the 1980s, prominent Western scientists were enlisted to disseminate the idea, likely unaware of its KGB origins. According to our information, the Kremlin intended to wait for the outcome of the US presidential elections before fully (re)launching this campaign.