Russia continues to mobilise resources and rebuild its mass army. Should the war in Ukraine end favourably for Russia, or if hostilities are frozen, it is almost certain that Russian military units will be permanently stationed along Estonia’s borders in greater numbers than before 24 February 2022. Russia is committed to advancing drone technology and integrating drones extensively into its armed forces. This increases the threat to Estonia and NATO. Drone production in Russia remains dependent on Western components.
Russia is highly unlikely to use nuclear weapons in its war against Ukraine and instead seeks to maximise its fear factor to sway Western decision-making. Russia’s nuclear threats have not yielded the desired results, and this is causing frustration among the country’s leadership.
Russia’s ruling elite maintains domestic control through increasingly forceful repression. With the ongoing war, development in sectors outside the defence industry has stalled, and domestic tensions are rising. Russia’s “war economy boom” is likely to come to an end in 2025. As Russia’s focus is on its war in Ukraine, its ability to prevent Islamist extremism and thwart terrorist attacks at home is limited.
Russia’s leadership cynically perpetuates the claim on the international stage that the war in Ukraine could have ended as early as 2022. Russia assumes that the international community either lacks knowledge of or has forgotten the state of negotiations when they collapsed in 2022. Russia’s disinformation campaigns are gaining ground among countries in the Global South. The Belarusian regime’s dependence on the Kremlin is deepening.
With Russia’s official contacts with the West impeded, Russian academics have taken on a larger role in back-channel diplomacy, serving as discreet conduits for communication with Western diplomats and think tank representatives.
Russia seeks to restore Moscow’s control over most of the South Caucasus to gain access to strategic infrastructure in the region. One of the keys to achieving this is the subjugation of Georgia.
The UAE has become a hub for Russian economic activity, offering opportunities for business and sanctions evasion, alongside relatively frequent political, military and intelligence interactions.
Russia has launched a sabotage campaign against the West to undermine support for Ukraine. Russian propagandists are also aiming to reignite fears of a “nuclear winter” – a theory widely explored in the 1980s – among Americans in 2025.
The FSB is responsible for the security of Russia’s armed forces and other militarized institutions through its military counterintelligence branch, VKR, which recruits informants from both Russian and foreign nationals.
China views Ukraine as part of Russia’s sphere of influence but only provides selective support to Russia in the information war, guided by its own strategic interests. For China, Russia’s defeat in the war against Ukraine would represent a victory for its main rival, the United States. The Chinese Communist Party uses scientific collaboration as a tool to acquire Western technology and strengthen its capabilities.
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